For ETH, which has recovered 20 percent over the past three days, downside risks still remain. Pay special attention to this technical model. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency is above the $30,000 level. He lost this important area many times during the day. Although the fear of Terra UST has eased, uncertainty in the market remains.
ETH has formed a convincing bearish pennant structure and may experience a significant breakthrough in May. The ETH price has been consolidating since May 11 in a range defined by two converging trend lines. This movement coincides with a drop in trading volumes, and the probability that ETH/USD will draw a bearish pennant increases.
Bearish pennants are bearish continuation patterns, meaning that the price dissolves after it breaks below the lower trend line of the structure, and then falls to the height of the previous downward movement. As a result of this technical rule, Ethereum risks closing below the pennant structure, followed by an additional downward movement.
Ethereum (ETH) Reviews
The height of the ETH flagpole is about $650. Consequently, if the price falls at the top of the pennant to $2030, the bearish target of the structure will be below $1,500, which is a loss of more than 25% of today’s price. Interestingly, the profit target of the bearish pennant falls into the area before the 250 percent price rally in the February-November 2021 session. Also, the target is near Ethereum’s 200-week exponential moving average (200-day EMA; blue wave), currently around $1,600.
The demand zone may provoke a sharp recovery due to the strong accumulation of the appetite of Ethereum investors. Assuming this happens, the temporary target for the ETH price will be a multi-month descending trend line, which acts as resistance in the “descending channel” model, as shown in the chart below.
The worst-case scenario could be ETH falling below the demand zone due to macro risks and their impact on the cryptocurrency market in 2022. In particular, investors may further reduce their investments in riskier assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and technology stocks, as interest rates will rise further.