Bitcoin (BTC) closed the month of September with a red candle. As it is known, the fourth quarters for the last two years have not been very good for Bitcoin. But due to the post-halving cycle, the 4th quarter may be different this time, according to one analyst.
Bitcoin is entering the fourth quarter of 2020 with the possibility of a greater retracement after failing to retrace the $ 11,000 level. On Wednesday, Bitcoin closed at $ 10,788, which also represented the cryptocurrency’s monthly closing price. Every September for the past three years, Bitcoin’s monthly price candle has been closed in red. This revealed a short-term bearish pattern, adding that the crucial point for the price action in September was the renewed rejection at $ 11,000.
BitMEX Incident Caused a Decline
However, Bitcoin suffered a sharp decline due to the BitMEX incident yesterday. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $ 10,505. This indicates a 4% decline in the last 24 hours. As we stated in our news yesterday, BitMEX founders have been sued for operating an unregistered trading platform and for neglecting money laundering procedures. Moreover, one of its founders was also arrested. According to analysts, although this situation is bad in the short term, it will reflect positively on the markets in the long run.
What Did Master Analyst Say About Bitcoin Price?
According to Master Analyst Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) the key levels to monitor are $ 11,800, $ 10,700 and $ 9,800. Breaking $ 11,800 would mean a resumption of price value, while a closing below $ 9,800 would mean a short-term bearish outlook, the analyst said.
“This Historical Trend Is Positive For BTC”
Talking about the short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency, the popular analyst explained that consolidation below resistance is generally on the rise. He stated that this ongoing consolidation was occurring below this level, which has since turned into resistance, as opposed to the past period of consolidation, which took place just above Bitcoin’s support level of $ 11,000.
Therefore, he believes this could mean the cryptocurrency will “explode”. The analyst said:
“Quick tip. When BTC solidifies just above the support and continues to embrace it, it’s almost always a bull trap. Especially when consolidation is tilting downward. When Bitcoin explodes, it usually explodes and doesn’t give anyone a chance to get in. ”
Bitcoin has not performed really well in the fourth quarter of the past two years. Combined with the uncertainty of the market due to the resurgent Covid-19 cases and the upcoming presidential elections, this can have a direct impact on global markets.
One of the reasons analysts believe that Bitcoin will rise in this fourth quarter is that the cryptocurrency is currently in the post-halving cycle, which last happened in May 2020. Bitcoin halving is usually an event that reflects positively on prices. However, according to PlanB’s Stock Flow (S2F) model, this supply shock combined with increased demand raises the price of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price rose months after the previous two halvings. After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin reached $ 20,000 in December 2017.