Fossil sources of energy will suffer an irreversible decline in the next 30 years, according to the forecast of the multinational British Petroleum (BP). In a report published on Monday (14), the company indicates that these sources will reach their peak consumption and from that, the massive adhesion of renewable energies will be inevitable.
This transition in the energy matrix will be more noticeable in the middle of this decade until approximately 2040. According to BP’s estimates, the share of hydrocarbons in primary energy – which reached 85% in 2018 – will fall from 20% to 65% in the next 30 years. Renewable energies, in turn, will show growth between 20% and 60%.
Demand for fossil fuels
The report indicated three different scenarios for the sector and all of them showed a drop in demand for oil and fossil fuels until 2050: 10% lower in the so-called “business-as-usual”; about 55% in the fast transition scenario; and 80% in “net zero”.
In the first hypothesis, demand stabilizes in the early 2020s. The remaining scenarios, affected by the covid-19 pandemic, have no prospect of recovery. The effects on the sector can already be seen today: in the first quarter of 2020, the biggest drop in oil demand in history was recorded.
Energy matrix transition
British Petroleum, which is considered an oil giant, has made strategic decisions based on this data. According to the Electrek news site, the company recently invested about $ 1.1 billion in offshore wind energy in the United States.
The multinational’s chief economist, Spencer Dale, says this transition “would be an unprecedented event”. According to him, the demand for a commercialized fuel has never been reduced as significantly as expected for oil and its similars. “Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy grows faster than any fuel ever seen in history,” says the executive.