Considering the increase in Netflix’s subscribers, its competitors and the increase in the number of active internet users, analysts have made an estimate of how many subscribers Netflix will reach by 2030. Accordingly, Netflix will have between 475 million and 525 million subscribers in 2030.
Netflix, the world’s largest online movie and series streaming service, has become an “online streaming service” as we know it in the last 10 years, despite its 23-year history, and the first Netflix Original production was released in 2013.
Netflix entered the 2010s with 20 million subscribers, and after 10 long years, the number of subscribers has reached 195 million. Netflix is thought to be still far from saturation, as the growth in Netflix’s subscriber base is still over 20 percent annually.
Netflix could reach 525 million subscribers by 2030
According to the data released by Cisco Systems, there will be 1.4 billion new internet users between 2018 and 2023, and the number of active internet users will reach 5.3 billion in 2023. As you can imagine, the increase in the number of active internet users will also affect the increase in Netflix’s subscriber base.
According to the information quoted by RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney, Netflix is predicted to experience an average annual subscriber increase of 10 percent in the next 10 years. This means that Netflix will have between 475 million and 525 million subscribers in 2030.
Netflix could double its profit margin in the next 10 years
Despite its nearly 200 million subscribers, Netflix is still not a “very profitable” company. The reason is that the financial power from subscribers and investors is transferred to content licenses and production costs of original content. Estimates are that Netflix will double its profit margin in the next decade.
Another factor affecting where Netflix will go in the next 10 years is rivals. The company had a monopoly in the online publishing industry for the past decade. However, it is thought that Netflix’s place in the sector may be put at risk as giants such as Disney, Apple and Amazon have started to invest in this sector.
The data shared so far shows that the companies we mentioned above do not pose a threat to Netflix yet. Netflix announced in its statements before the pandemic that it predicted a 16.9 percent subscriber increase in the first quarter, but the increase was again over 20 percent. This shows that services like Disney + or Prime Video cannot steal subscribers from Netflix.