The fact that Bitcoin is in an upward trend and breaking the price of $ 16,000 upwards brought the stock-flow model to mind once again.
The largest cryptocurrency has surpassed $ 15,000 for the first time since January 2018 and has surpassed the $ 16,000 level today. For the second time this month, this level showed resistance and there was a decline towards $ 15750, but the biggest coin again scored itself above 16 thousand. The sharp rising moves since October brought the stock-flow model of the investor known as “Plan B” to mind once again. BTC’s recent bullish moves continue to keep it in this pattern.
S2F, with its short name, which explores the relationship between supply production and existing stock and is a model for calculating the price of Bitcoin with its scarcity feature, was first published in March 2019. The model shows the BTC price at high points in the future, with 3 prize halves previously experienced in Bitcoin. The year 2020 is currently following the same path that happened after the halvings in 2012 and 2016, and if the date is just a repetition, a huge rally is foreseen for 2021.
Plan B said in yesterday’s tweet:
“Bitcoin S2F model chart update (timeframes only). The price points go harmoniously with the model line. S2F rises in multiple ways (white spots). “
If BTC continues on this path, prices could reach 6-digit numbers in 2021 according to this model. Plan B also commented earlier this week that it is behind both its model and its price predictions:
“People still ask if I believe my model. To be frank, I have no doubts. The S2FX model (updated version of S2F) is correct, and if Bitcoin is $ 100k, it will surely come to a point between $ 288k before December 2021. There are also new data showing the accuracy of my comments on supply cuts. I think 2021 will be incredible ”
Strong criticism of the model
Eric Wall, an investment manager at the crypto investment fund company Arcane Assets, says he is not convinced by Plan B’s comments. Wall points out that the Bitcoin price model will definitely break within 5 years, and that it will not reach even half the price it shows, that it can even make a $ 1 million claim for it:
“Are you sure what the model will do? I bet $ 1 million that the S2FX model will break down in less than 5 years. This is not a joke. For this claim, I am ready to give the money to a person we both trust. Are you ready? By spoiling, I mean it won’t reach even 50 percent of the target price ”
Ari Paul, investment manager at BlockTower Capital, also stated that he wants to take part in this bet and will give 3 to 1 for the model not to hold. Stating that Wall could not comment on what he said, Paul said it would provide an arbitrage opportunity:
“I can’t talk about Eric’s comments. The reason I made a bid on this claim has nothing to do with the consistency of the S2FX. I do not think that. It’s just a simple arbitrage thing… Buy BTC, short S2FX at 1 to 3… It’s impossible for you to lose… “