The Central Bank (BC), through the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), announced earlier this Wednesday (17th) an increase of 0.75 percentage points in the Selic rate. The decision, which marked the first increase in the last 6 years, raised the basic interest rate to 2.75%. The new Selic has the potential to impact the dollar here in Brazil and, consequently, stabilize the price of cell phones and other electronics for the final consumer.
Much of the financial market received the news with surprise, as an increase of 0.5 percentage point was expected. According to the Central Bank, the increase is a stimulus to “reduce the probability of not meeting this year’s inflation target”.
Inflation, which is the movement whose main reflex is the increase in food prices, for example, had been registering high mainly because of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic of the coronavirus.
Renato Schaefer, investment analyst and specialist in financial advisory, explains that the decision will also affect the dollar. “From now on, we need to see how the decision will reflect on the market, but it is possible to bet on a stabilization of the exchange rate,” he tells TecMundo.
Impact on the technology sector
Like many other sectors of the economy, electronic products are directly impacted by the fluctuation of the dollar. More recently, we explained, for example, what has happened with the price of video cards. With the justification of keeping the market supplied, a Brazilian store even increased the value of the RTX 3080 by about 70% in just one day.
Renato argues that the likely stabilization of the dollar may generate benefits in the short term. “The decision to increase the Selic rate also ‘stagnates’, in a way, the outflow of foreign capital from the country. This reflects a slightly more controlled exchange rate and, consequently, imported products that are a little more competitive, since most of them come from China or the USA “.
The expert warns, however, that this is not the moment of euphoria, especially if we consider that the values are already high and “stabilization” does not mean “fall”. For electronics such as smartphones, video games and GPUs to be cheaper for Brazilians, a great economic movement is still necessary. He recalls that all of these items are also affected by the “Brazil factor”, which is represented by high taxes.
“The economy is complex, so a new measure taken by the President of the United States, Joe Biden, also ends up reflecting here, for example. That is why we still need to wait for the next measures from the Central Bank, since any adjustment in the exchange rate level for now will be quite momentary ”, he concludes.