In an interview published in Época magazine on Wednesday (18), a researcher who has been following data from the Brazilian pandemic of the new coronavirus for eight months says that “Brazil is already in the second wave of covid-19”.
The author of the sentence is researcher Domingos Alves, responsible for the Laboratory of Health Intelligence (LIS) at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of São Paulo (USP), in Ribeirão Preto. He is part of a group of independent and volunteer scientists who seek to assess the evolution of covid-19 through data science.
Following the pandemic in Brazil since March, the scientist assesses that Brazil is experiencing, in the same way as the United States and Europe, a new wave of contagions. The conclusion is based on the evolution of the so-called “reproduction rate (Rt)”, which, based on the increase in new cases, allows to know how many people are infected by someone who is already infected.
What Rt Says
If the index calculated by Rt is above 1, it means that the pandemic is expanding. When it is down, it is a sign that the pandemic is receding. In Brazil, the rate verified by the Observatory of Respiratory Syndromes of the Federal University of Paraíba on November 16 was 1.12.
The translation of this figure is that 100 people already infected with the coronavirus will infect 112 others who, in turn, will infect another 125 and, in this way, the Brazilian epidemic grows in a frighteningly exponential way.
On the released date, Rt was above 1 in 20 states of the federation, being more critical in Paraná, where it was 1.62. To prove the upward trend, Alves explained that the Rt moving average calculated based on the previous 14 days is also analyzed. On November 16, the national moving average was 1.06, with peaks of 1.34 in Paraná and 1.32 in Acre.