Brazil may reach a peak of 5,000 daily deaths by covid-19 between April and May, surpassing the records that have been registered in March. The projection was made in a study led by professor at the Statistics Department of the Federal Fluminense University (UFF) Márcio Watanabe, released this Wednesday (24).
According to the statistician, this number of deaths caused by the new coronavirus was calculated based on the seasonality of the disease. Like other respiratory diseases, covid-19 has a high number of cases in autumn and winter, due to the low immunity in these seasons and the longer time indoors, among other factors.
The professor also says there is evidence about seasonality affecting the transmission of Sars-CoV-2 and said that contamination also tends to increase throughout the southern hemisphere during this period and in countries with seasonal patterns similar to Brazil, such as Bangladesh and India .
Even in the countries of the region where vaccination is advanced, such as Chile, they have experienced the seasonal effect, according to Watanabe, with an increase in cases in recent days. In the Northern Hemisphere, on the other hand, there may be a high level of contamination, but with a lower tendency to increase.
Covid-19 will be endemic
Intensifying vaccination, including in the priority group people aged between 50 and 60, who represent a significant portion of hospitalizations and deaths, is the best way to avoid the projected peak, according to Watanabe. Maintaining social distance is another essential measure.
He believes that after the majority of the population receives immunization, it will be possible to live with covid-19 in the same way as we live with pneumonia and other respiratory diseases. However, it will be endemic, continuing to register cases.
“Thus, a fundamental point for the future is science to find some treatment that is significantly effective for patients hospitalized with coronavirus”, says the researcher.