According to a survey by the London School of Tropical Medicine, in the United Kingdom, Brazil could already have more than 17 thousand cases of covid-19, well beyond the 1,891 officially registered by the Ministry of Health on March 23.
That’s because only people who go to hospitals are being tested for the presence of the coronavirus. Thus, a mathematical model of this institution predicts that only 11% of the actual cases of the infection are known and tracked by the Brazilian authorities.
This low number is a consequence, especially, of the fact that about 80% of cases of covid-19 are practically asymptomatic or cause very mild symptoms in those infected. Thus, these people do not go to hospitals – which is even the right action according to the Ministry of Health – and this distorts the real statistics of the disease.
The same mathematical model analyzed the situation in other countries that also suffer from the coronavirus outbreak. South Korea and Germany, which have tested intensively even asymptomatic citizens, have much better detection rates. The Asian country reportedly knows 88% of all cases of covid-19 within its borders, while the European country reaches 75%.
However, there are far more complicated scenarios than ours. Italy, which is facing the worst of the epidemic phase at the moment, knows only 4.6% of the real cases of the disease, according to the model. In Spain, where the situation is also very serious, it is 5.3%.
France reaches 9.2% in this account, while Belgium hits 12%, both very close to the index of knowledge of the infection in Brazil.
Update 03/24/20 – 3:40 pm: the page of the original source of this information went offline. We are confirming the data of this news with the responsible researchers and will update it if corrections are necessary.