Plan B states that before December 2021, based on the S2F model, Bitcoin will reach somewhere in the $ 100,000-$ 288,000 band. Despite many updates and announcements on the regulatory and corporate front, the famous name continues to stand behind this prediction.
Although there are several Bitcoin Maximalists in the cryptocurrency community who dream of a $ 100,000 Bitcoin at the end of 2020, PlanB stands out with its prediction because it is supported by a model and there is still time to do so. There are 13 months left until December 2021. 13 months is enough time for the Bitcoin price to go through the 3 phases of the market cycle. The $ 100,000 doesn’t seem like a dream with the time component included.
It is also reported that more BTC has been moved to cold wallets. There are also hundreds of small 0.01 BTC wallets that buy BTC sold by weak hands on exchanges for whales when there is a correction or the price drops below the recent high. When Bitcoin is stored in cold or private wallets, the supply drops. In addition, this occurs within a few months after halving and this is known to cause a supply shock. The slow accumulation of supply scarcity drives a bull market over the next 18 to 20 months. Traders who have been trading for more than four to five years are familiar with the effect when the 2012 and 2016 halving led to the 2013 and 2017 bull run, respectively. The 2020 halving is on the same track, and the price is already over $ 15,000.
As the supply scarcity becomes significant, the supply sold demands a higher price and naturally shifts upward. This was the case in the first week of November when the charts showed a BTC sell wall and hardly any BTC was sold. In the nine months of the halving, almost 100% HODLers will be sitting on profit, and sales-side pressure may increase. Spot exchanges could fill with BTC for sale, and the price could continue to rise, increasing retail and institutional interest and creating new demand.
May Increase Price
When this demand is met and new demand is constantly generated, the willingness of HODL makers and miners to sell may decline. Those who do HODL may choose not to sell their assets on it for a few weeks to several months while waiting for the next big price move to reserve unrealized profits. When the price rises enough, a madness-like phase erodes price and demand.