Kraken Intelligence, the research arm of a cryptocurrency exchange, evaluated the price potential of the flagship cryptocurrency for August after its turbulent quarter.
According to the crypto exchange’s new report, Bitcoin performed quite well in July, rewarding its investors with a +18% return, which is above the historical average return for the month of 11%.
Kraken says that August is not generally a high-performing month for Bitcoin.
“August is the second-worst month on record with average and median monthly returns of 2% and -7% respectively. Indeed, since 2011, August has performed only three times better than July.”
Kraken also looked at BTC‘s past third-quarter figures, noting that Bitcoin’s performance in the third quarter has been rather volatile over the past few years. Kraken argues that historical priority may not be a reliable indicator in this case.
The crypto exchange also says that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped a bit lately and may drop further towards the rest of the month.
“While Bitcoin’s 30D rolling volatility (76.5%) is fast approaching its 345D rolling volatility (73.1%) and volatility remains on an uptrend, volatility can be expected to drop a little more in August before surging at the end of the following week(s)/month(s). In summary, history shows that volatility is on the horizon.”
The crypto exchange also included whale activity in its report. Kraken claims that the “group” of whales holding 1,000 BTC or more began accumulating BTC again in July after dropping 30,000 BTC in June. Kraken reported that the amount of BTC in whale wallets increased sharply after Bitcoin jumped from $30,000 on July 20.
“Continued accumulation tells us that this group has an upward expectation from the current price and that the current market supply of BTC is falling.”