A study by the School of Public Health T.H. Chan, from Harvard University, revealed that, possibly, people will have to adopt measures of social distance (read physical distance) by 2022, so that the pandemic of the new coronavirus is completely controlled.
Sociologists suggested that, until the end of the pandemic, people would have to maintain some socially distant behaviors such as avoiding hugs, kisses and handshakes. However, according to the article published on Tuesday (14), in the journal Science, which addresses the study by Harvard, even after the contagion curve has been flattened, new outbreaks of the virus may occur until 2024.
The duration and impact of the covid-19 pandemic in the next five years is closely related to the sustainability and efficiency of this initial period of social isolation, which will be dictated mainly by the duration of the immunity that people acquire when exposed to the disease.
Outbreaks will occur periodically
According to the researchers, the new outbreaks of covid-19 will occur periodically, according to the duration of immunity to the disease. This immunity can last more or less, which can determine outbreaks occurring annually or biennially, just to exemplify.
Another data indicates that there may be substantial outbreaks at any time of the year, but it is still likely that the number of contagions will reach peaks at certain times of the year, such as in the beginning of winter.
Alternating social distance
Due to the lack of reliable information about the duration of immunity, the researchers suggest that just a period of social isolation is not enough to end the new coronavirus pandemic. Thus, it is possible that other quarantine periods will be necessary until 2022, to control the spread of contagion, or, at least, to prevent the collapse of the health systems of the affected countries. These new periods of isolation may be necessary until the development of an effective drug or the arrival of a vaccine.