The date on December 25, when more than 100 thousand Bitcoin (BTC) options will expire in total, has come. According to Skew data, the 102,200 BTC contract will expire on December 25, arriving at Christmas. The value of these contracts, each corresponding to one bitcoin, is more than $ 2 billion in dollar terms.
The critical date for Bitcoin options that expire at the end of the month will be December 25 this month. On this date, which coincides with the last Friday of December, a total of 102 thousand 200 thousand contracts will have expired. Assuming that the bitcoin price is $ 22,300, this equates to $ 2.2 billion.
The $ 2.2 billion big day: How will it affect the price?
In the derivatives market, hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts have expired on the same day in recent months. However, it has not been encountered with such a large number as 2.2 billion dollars for a long time. Holders of these contracts will have the option to buy or sell bitcoin when the last day comes. This option does not have to be implemented.
This development in the derivatives market can increase the transaction volume of traditional assets, cause an adverse movement in the price, and cause the price to be more volatile than normal. Interdax conducted a study to see if the same applies to bitcoin. According to the research, the bitcoin price exhibits a small-scale movement within 24-72 hours after the contracts expire. This development does not affect the bitcoin price on a weekly basis.
Will it fall below 20 thousand dollars at the end of the year?
Measuring the general perception in the market, Skew pointed out that the bitcoin price will not experience a major drop in the short term. According to current data, derivatives investors expect the price of bitcoin to remain above $ 20,000 by the end of the year. Skew made this assessment that “There is 88% probability that Bitcoin will be over $ 20,000 at the end of the year!” shared with the message.